tl;dr: Written by Clifford Asness and Aaron Brown, a really interesting breakdown of why coaches should actually pull their golie earlier than the normal 1 min left. It really comes down to coaches optimizing for the wrong metric. Instead of thinking in terms of winning or losing, they should be thinking in terms of how the NHL’s point system works. Even though there’s a ~4:1 advantage for the team with a goalie, if the team losing doesn’t at least tie the game, they end with 0 instead of 1 or 2 points.
It then goes into the psyche of coaches and micro hiring incentives. Then connects to the CIO job.
Link: Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications
Source: Clifford Asness research papers
First published on May 23, 2020